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Is Supermodel Prediction Worthwhile?

  • Amy Bebbington

Each year a new breed of models rise to the top of the industry leading the way for fellow hopefuls and peers. The two names that immediately spring to mind are Kendall Jenner and Jourdan Dunn who have relied on Instagram followers and catwalk appearances to become the most wanted model of the season. Of course, Cara Delevingne earned her top spot before her very public retirement from the industry. As the fashion industry constantly evolves so does the modelling world as new faces enter the arena each year fighting for their place in the system. However, researchers have turned to mathematic formulas to predict the newest faces and how successful their career will be. A team at Indiana University School of Informatics and Computing have developed an equation that provides a list of the hottest new faces of the season.


The elements that are assessed include:

  • eye colour
  • height
  • hip and waist measurements,
  • shoe size
  • modelling agency
  • runway appearance
  • Instagram followers and likes

Emilio Ferrara, the universities research assistant reveals: “We counted how many posts the models did, and how many likes and comments each post would get, on average… We collected the data on their portfolios: how many runway walks the models had already done, and a few other figures such as height (and) shoe size.”

With all this information accurately entered into the computer system the results show the big faces  of the next season, which last year received an 80% success rate. To predict the AW15 leading models, the research team selected 15 models stating that 8 would be more successful than the other 7. Six names in each category were correct with Arina Levchenko, Sofia Tesmenitskaya and Renata Scheffer included in the successful group.


Other discoveries include those who measure an inch above their rivals, possess hip and waist measurements that are lower than average, being signed to a top modelling agency and nurturing your Instagram account – positing regularly to gain a high number of likes will give the model a beneficial edge.

Emilio states: “Instagram is as important as being cast by a top agency in terms of its ability to predict success on the runway.”

The factors and results that are included in the research are no ground breaking discovery as it is common knowledge that tall, slim models who look after their social media platforms and are represented by a top agency will succeed. Those who are keen followers of the modelling and fashion industry can easily predict the future through instinct and passionately following model Instagram accounts. Is the research a pointless task for the team as no new information has been released through the university program? Or do you believe that a mathematic formula is necessary to predict the future of supermodels? We are not totally convinced. It would be interesting to see an industry expert perform the same task to view the outcome to test whether the modelling industry needs a research team to concentrate on such a task.

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Posted by Amy Bebbington

I express my love of fashion through writing, blogging and styling. My creative personality ensures that I produce unique and original work. I am a keen knitter and enthusiatic dancer.